I think the challenge Apple has, even with the 5 around the corner is this. Not sure I'll explain it as well as I'd like but it goes something like this:
iPhone "1" is mind blowingly awesome. A fantastically complete device. Subsequent updates to the hardware and OS make meaningful but incremental improvements. So an original iPhone 1 is 80% of what a 5 will be.
Android early phones are fascinating but generally pretty average - especially compared to an iPhone. Yet/Therefore every new hw and OS update provides substantial improvements over what's come before.
Therefore two things happen. Android phones close the absolute gap to iPhone helping for competitive wins. Secondly, Android new/upgrade phones excite the heck out of existing Android owners because they (along with the OS) are a real improvement.
I see iPhone 5 sales driven by people who held off getting an iPhone for the last two months because of the news. I don't see that other afterburner of sales though - 4 and 4S users who see a real driver to upgrade.
I bought the second iPhone. 2 years ago I bought an HTC Evo 4g to test the Android waters. I still use it (upgrading soon) and never really loved it. But it "converted" me for a few reasons:
- The screen size. I write iOS apps at work and get annoying having to use that tiny screen. I had hopes the iPhone5 would address this. Making the screen a little taller is a weak answer.
- More customizability. The Verge had a thread recently where they asked you to show off your phone/tablet home screen. It was a stark contrast to see the way android users personalized their home screens vs. the same grid of icons the iOS users posted. The widgets I have on my home screen tell me all kinds of things without having to run any apps.
- More control. I can run whatever app I want on it, and I can sell my apps to other android users however I want with my own billing methods if need be. Selling Android apps is easier than dealing with the iOS App Store.
I (obviously anecdotally) think the scales have tipped. I'm running into more people loving their Android phones instead of tolerating them. The latest fad apps have launched with Android counterparts (Draw Something, SongPop). When we show our software to potential clients running on a SGSIII and an iPhone4s, they all want to touch the SGSIII phone and play with it. Side by side with the screens turned on, there's no comparison.
It's a fun "fight" to watch, and we're benefitting from it.
iPhone "1" is mind blowingly awesome. A fantastically complete device. Subsequent updates to the hardware and OS make meaningful but incremental improvements. So an original iPhone 1 is 80% of what a 5 will be.
Android early phones are fascinating but generally pretty average - especially compared to an iPhone. Yet/Therefore every new hw and OS update provides substantial improvements over what's come before.
Therefore two things happen. Android phones close the absolute gap to iPhone helping for competitive wins. Secondly, Android new/upgrade phones excite the heck out of existing Android owners because they (along with the OS) are a real improvement.
I see iPhone 5 sales driven by people who held off getting an iPhone for the last two months because of the news. I don't see that other afterburner of sales though - 4 and 4S users who see a real driver to upgrade.