Software jobs can be divided into expert jobs and laborer jobs.
Even if the demand for "code monkeys" decreases, demand for much smaller group of software engineers with masters or PhD (equivalent) and good mathematical skills probably increases.
It's a dynamic process where two forces find a equilibrium.
>Automation, which enables capital to replace labor in tasks it was previously engaged in, shifts the task content of production against labor because of a displacement effect. As a result, automation always reduces the labor share in value added and may reduce labor demand even as it raises productivity.
>The effects of automation are counterbalanced by the creation of new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. The introduction of new tasks changes the task content of production in favor of labor because of a reinstatement effect, and always raises the labor share and labor demand.
Nonsense. You know how many masters and PhDs NLP and computer vision knowledge is now almost entirely irrelevant for most businesses now that any uneducated person like me can access GPT-4 with an API call? Pretty much all of them. And within a year or two of years open source models will be available to run onsite for the ones that have security issues.
The best new models are so powerful and general that you literally don't have to train them for any specific task. Just give them some context.
ChatGPT couldn't count. GPT-4 gets a high score on a math SAT.
You and your friends will be easily replaceable with AI. Quite possibly already with GPT-4. If not, certainly we should anticipate within 3 years.
Software jobs can be divided into expert jobs and laborer jobs.
Even if the demand for "code monkeys" decreases, demand for much smaller group of software engineers with masters or PhD (equivalent) and good mathematical skills probably increases.
It's a dynamic process where two forces find a equilibrium.
>Automation, which enables capital to replace labor in tasks it was previously engaged in, shifts the task content of production against labor because of a displacement effect. As a result, automation always reduces the labor share in value added and may reduce labor demand even as it raises productivity.
>The effects of automation are counterbalanced by the creation of new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. The introduction of new tasks changes the task content of production in favor of labor because of a reinstatement effect, and always raises the labor share and labor demand.
Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.2.3