FWIW the 20% figure is reasonable. Reading through http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.com/content/82/4/457.full and doing some back of the envelope figures, let's suppose that 20% of the population has been abused. Let's suppose that the average abuser abuses 20 people. So 1% of the population are abusers. If virtually all abusers are men, that puts it at about 2% of the male population. (Which is, incidentally, similar in frequency from homosexuality. So this is not a difficult to believe rate to find for an unusual sexual orientation. Though evidence suggests very little overlap between homosexuality and pedophilia.)
Now add to this the fact that most men don't have a strong interest in children. But all pedophiles do. So among men who choose to deal with children all day, you have to expect much higher rates of pedophilia than in the general population. If it is an order of magnitude difference, you'd get to 20% pretty easily.
All of that notwithstanding, the best way to protect children seems to me to be to teach them what they should bring up with other adults. Abuse depends on secrecy. The best protection is light. This is much better than tarring 80% with the problems of the remaining 20%. Particularly if you believe, as I do, that it is important for children to have both male and female role models.
Furthermore it seems to me that we're creating our own problem. The more we demonize men who want to deal with children, the more we drive non-pedophiles away from that, then the higher the fraction of those left who are going to be pedophiles.
I understand your decision to react differently based on the data. But I don't agree with it.
The more we demonize men who want to deal with children, the more we drive non-pedophiles away from that, then the higher the fraction of those left who are going to be pedophiles.
I agree with that, and I don't like it. I don't particularly like the position I have. I struggle to take on a different one though.
Different studies have found very different figures. The link that I provided includes a range of figures from different studies for different kinds of pedophiles ranging from 5.2-150 victims/pedophile. One of the reported numbers for non-incarcerated heterosexual pedophiles was 19.8. It looked like a reasonable figure, so I used it (after rounding).
It should be noted that I started drawing my figures with the assumption that I'd find that the number was hopelessly overinflated. When I got done I could have easily picked other numbers to show that. But I decided to be honest and report the first set of reasonable numbers that I tried.
Now add to this the fact that most men don't have a strong interest in children. But all pedophiles do. So among men who choose to deal with children all day, you have to expect much higher rates of pedophilia than in the general population. If it is an order of magnitude difference, you'd get to 20% pretty easily.
All of that notwithstanding, the best way to protect children seems to me to be to teach them what they should bring up with other adults. Abuse depends on secrecy. The best protection is light. This is much better than tarring 80% with the problems of the remaining 20%. Particularly if you believe, as I do, that it is important for children to have both male and female role models.
Furthermore it seems to me that we're creating our own problem. The more we demonize men who want to deal with children, the more we drive non-pedophiles away from that, then the higher the fraction of those left who are going to be pedophiles.
I understand your decision to react differently based on the data. But I don't agree with it.